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When I appeared on a panel of journalists from international publications recently, the moderator asked us to nominate our big story for the next year.

One of the panellists suggested the UK parliamentary elections. A second mentioned the continued ramifications of the financial crisis. I said Brazil, which I was about to visit for the first time.

Consider, I said: Brazil had come through the financial crisis in reasonable shape. It was sitting on a vast deep­sea oil find. It had just seen the world's biggest stock market listing this year ­ the $8bn flotation of part of the Brazilian arm of Santander. It would also be host to the world's two biggest sporting events: the 2014 football World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games ­ which Rio de Janeiro had won this month over Tokyo, Madrid and Chicago.

Yet as I sat on my flight to Rio, I could not suppress some trepidation at the country's well­-known drawback. "Violence and crime can occur anywhere and often involve firearms or other weapons," the British Foreign Office travel advice on Brazil says. "Cases of carjacking occur, sometimes with the occupants being taken and forced to withdraw money from their accounts at cash machines."